SPACE AUTONOMY MONITOREuropean strategic autonomy in space—

Strategy 2036

Selective sovereignty

Build what must be European. Buy what the market delivers. Ally where it pays.

Europe today: 48% of the 2036 targets →

Group recommendations. 2036 targets are group hypotheses, not adopted policy targets.

Roadmap

Achieved Planned or expected

2026–27

Set the rules

2028–30

Build the capital machine

2031–36

Learn and phase out

2026

2026

7 Aug · IRIS² implementation agreementachieved28 Aug · ESA Launcher Challenge contracts signedachieved5 Sep · Isar reaches orbitachieved
Nov–Dec 2026 · European offsets and preference into the defence procurement directive reviewplanned, group proposal
2027

2027

EU budget 2028–34 negotiations concludeexpected
Ring-fenced space money and space window in the 2028–34 budget talks; dependency register set upplanned, group proposal
2028

2028

Launcher Challenge orbital flight · new EU budget periodplanned
7–10 year anchor contracts and framework agreementsplanned, group proposal
2031

2031

First review of the dependency register (every 3–5 years)planned, group proposal
2032
2033

2033

Support phase-down check: private rounds at least 3x public, two suppliers per capabilityplanned, group proposal
2034

2034

Second register reviewplanned, group proposal
2035
2036

2036

about 2036 · 2036 targets · end of IRIS² concessionplanned
90% European-led capital, two European suppliers in every critical capability, growing European share of launchesplanned, group proposal

Dates from the group brief are supplied inputs until a source is registered. Group proposals are planned recommendations, not adopted policy.

Phases

Phase 1 · 2026–27

Set the rules

  • Put the revised defence procurement directive to use for European offsets.
  • Pilot an offtake guarantee for European launch and satellite services.
  • Secure a space budget line in the next EU budget.
  • Use existing instruments first: Space TechEU and the Scaleup Europe Fund.

Should move

KPI 0140%KPI 0440%KPI 1158%KPI 1214%

Phase 2 · 2028–30

Build the capital machine

  • Operate a space window in the growth fund and EIB loans with first-loss guarantees for infrastructure.
  • Commit fixed, rising launch volumes with milestone payments.
  • Offer demonstration vouchers to new suppliers.
  • Bridge IRIS² with OneWeb until the constellation is in service.

Should move

KPI 0140%KPI 0267%KPI 0377%KPI 0440%KPI 070%

Phase 3 · 2031–36

Learn and phase out

  • Recycle returns from public stakes into the next generation.
  • Evaluate every scheme, each with a sunset clause.
  • Phase out support once private rounds are three times larger than public ones and each capability has at least two suppliers.

Should move

KPI 0377%KPI 0440%KPI 0543%KPI 0670%

Strategy levers

1Group recommendation

Fixed, rising launch volumes

Guarantee growing institutional launch demand split between at least two suppliers.

KPI 0140%KPI 0267%
2Group recommendation

Milestone contracts, not cost-plus

Pay for delivered milestones, as in NASA's COTS model and ESA's Launcher Challenge.

KPI 0140%KPI 0267%
3Group recommendation

A space window for growth capital

A space window in the Scaleup Europe Fund plus EIB loans and first-loss guarantees.

KPI 0377%KPI 0440%
4Group recommendation

European control tied to support

Public support comes with conditions on headquarters, sale and change of ownership.

KPI 0543%
5Group recommendation

A fair share for SMEs

An SME and scale-up share of defence-space funds, subcontracting requirements and payment within 30 days.

KPI 0670%
6Group recommendation

IRIS² with a OneWeb bridge

Bridge secure connectivity with OneWeb and crisis agreements until IRIS² is in service.

KPI 070%
7Group recommendation

Authenticated Galileo by default

Require Galileo OSNMA authentication in procurement and run regular stress tests.

KPI 0838% exposed
8Group recommendation

Pool demand at EU level

Lift offsets to EU level and build a coalition of the willing for joint procurement.

KPI 1158%KPI 1214%

Build · Buy · Ally

Is it critical for security? Build. Does the market deliver reliably? Buy. Can a trusted partner share it? Ally.

BuildBuyAlly
C01Critical launch capabilitiesbuildC02Non-critical launch capabilitiesbuy + allyC03Secure governmental communicationsbuildC04Commercial satellite broadbandbuyC05Galileo and European navigation servicesbuildC06Earth observation data collectionbuild + allyC07Encryption keys and system controlbuildC08Ground stations and communication infrastructurebuild + allyC09Critical-infrastructure navigation receiversbuyC10Earth observation data analysisbuy + allyC11Chips, solar cells and critical raw materialsally + build