KPI 01 · Autonomy indicator

European orbital launches per year

Strategic objective: Assured, independent European access to space.

At riskData: Partially verifiedConfidence: Low⚑ Conflicting evidence⚑ Low confidence⚑ Conflicting evidence

Latest value

7–9 (conflicting evidence)

Reporting period: Calendar year 2025

Source: ESA: Europe's Spaceport 2025 review

⚑ Conflicting evidence

Baseline

9 launches (supplied, unverified)

Baseline period: 2025

⚑ Supplied starting figure

Target

At least 20 launches per year

Target year: 2036 · Target hypothesis

Baseline required

Status and how it was assigned

Assessment, distinct from the sourced values. Status methodology

At riskMethod: Expert assessmentDirection: higher is better

Provisional assessment. Every candidate 2025 value (7, 8 or 9) is less than half the target of 20, and no multi-year trend has yet been recorded. The conflict between values does not change the assessment.

Expert assessment applied

Assessed status: At risk
Assessment date: 9 Nov 2026
Reviewer: Monitor editorial review (provisional; individual reviewer not yet assigned)
Reason: Provisional assessment. Every candidate 2025 value (7, 8 or 9) is less than half the target of 20, and no multi-year trend has yet been recorded. The conflict between values does not change the assessment.
Supporting evidence: Candidate 2025 values 7 (ESA, successful Kourou launches) and 8 (Ars Technica, European launches) against a 20-launch hypothesis; supplied figure of 9 unverified.
Confidence: Low

Quality indicators

Data quality

⚑ Partially verified

Status of the measurement itself.

Confidence

⚑ Low

Independent of the progress status.

Data freshness

✓ Current

Latest period ends 31 Dec 2025; outdated after 24 months.

Source availability

✓ 1 of 3 verified

Source–value links fully verified.

Limitations

⚑ 4 open questions

See limitations and outstanding questions.

Definition

Working definition (pending confirmation): successful orbital launches in a calendar year performed by launch vehicles developed and operated by European providers, regardless of launch site. Attempted launches are recorded separately.

Launch provider nationality: Provider headquartered and controlled in Europe (e.g. Arianespace, Avio, Isar Aerospace). Primary basis for this KPI.
Launch site: Location of lift-off (e.g. Kourou, Andøya). A launch from a European site by a non-European provider would not count; a European launcher flying from outside Europe would.
Ownership or control: Who owns and controls the launch service. Must be documented separately when ownership is mixed.
Successful vs attempted: A successful launch reaches the intended orbit. Attempts include failures. The two are reported as separate series.

Historical development

Insufficient historical data

Fewer than two sourced observations exist for a single, consistently defined series. A chart will appear once further reporting periods are recorded. No values are interpolated.

Observation log

All recorded values, including supplied, comparison and contextual figures. History is append-only; values are never overwritten.

Period	Value	Series · type	Source · status
2025	9 launches Europe (definition not stated)	Supplied figure Baseline	Phase 1 KPI framework (supplied research) ⚑ Supplied figure⚑ Conflicting evidence Supplied starting figure. Origin and counting rule not documented; not supported by the sources checked. Confidence low · added 9 Nov 2026
2025	7 successful launches Launches from Europe's Spaceport (Kourou) by Ariane 6 (4) and Vega-C (3)	Successful launches from Europe's Spaceport Measurement	ESA: Europe's Spaceport 2025 review ⚑ Partially verified Derived by counting the launches listed by ESA (4 Ariane 6, 3 Vega-C). ESA does not state a total. Excludes the failed Spectrum test flight from Andøya (March 2025). Confidence medium · added 9 Nov 2026
2025	8 launches Europe (counting rule not stated)	Reported European launches (secondary) Measurement	Ars Technica Rocket Report: 2025 year in review ✓ Verified secondary source Source states "Europe with eight". Likely counts attempts including the failed Spectrum flight; not confirmed. Confidence low · added 9 Nov 2026
2025	175 launches SpaceX	SpaceX (comparison) Comparison	Phase 1 KPI framework (supplied research) ⚑ Supplied figure⚑ Conflicting evidence Supplied comparison. Secondary source reports 165 Falcon 9 + 5 Starship launches. Not displayed as a comparison until definitions are aligned. Confidence low · added 9 Nov 2026
2025	170 launches (165 Falcon 9 + 5 Starship) SpaceX	SpaceX (comparison) Comparison	Ars Technica Rocket Report: 2025 year in review ✓ Verified secondary source Sum derived from two statements in the source. Whether Starship test flights count as orbital launches is a definitional choice. Confidence low · added 9 Nov 2026
2025	94 launches China	China (comparison) Comparison	Phase 1 KPI framework (supplied research) ⚑ Supplied figure⚑ Conflicting evidence Supplied comparison. Secondary source reports 92 attempted orbital launches. Confidence low · added 9 Nov 2026
2025	92 attempted launches China	China (comparison) Comparison	Ars Technica Rocket Report: 2025 year in review ✓ Verified secondary source Attempts, not successes. Not comparable with a successful-launch count. Confidence low · added 9 Nov 2026

Method

Unit: Launches per year
Calculation: Count of launches in the calendar year meeting the working definition. Successes and attempts are counted in separate series and never mixed.
Numerator: Successful orbital launches by European-operated launch vehicles in the year
Denominator: Not applicable (count)
Geographic scope: Europe (European launch providers; launch sites in and outside Europe)
Update frequency: Annual (calendar year)
Data status: Partially verified
Confidence: Low
Record last updated: 9 Nov 2026
Record created: 9 Nov 2026

Validation review

Definition: Partially
Baseline verified: No
Target justified: Partially
Method documented: Partially
Source quality: Medium
Reviewed: 9 Nov 2026 · Monitor editorial review (provisional)
Notes: Counting rule (provider, site, ownership; success vs attempt) not confirmed. Supplied baseline of 9 conflicts with sourced 7 and 8. Target is a supplied hypothesis without documented rationale.

Limitations and caveats

Three figures exist for 2025 with different scopes: 7 successful launches from Europe's Spaceport derived from the ESA launch list; 8 reported for Europe by Ars Technica (counting rule not stated, likely including the failed Spectrum test flight); 9 in the supplied brief (origin not documented). International comparisons supplied in the brief (SpaceX 175, China 94) differ from the secondary source (SpaceX 165 Falcon 9 + 5 Starship; China 92 attempted) and are not displayed as comparisons until definitions and periods are aligned.

Outstanding questions

Confirm the counting rule: provider nationality, launch site, or ownership/control.
Confirm whether the KPI counts successful launches only or all attempts.
Identify the origin of the supplied figure of 9 launches in 2025.
Identify the origin of the supplied comparisons (SpaceX 175, China 94) and their definitions before displaying any comparison.

Sources and evidence

What each source supports for this KPI. A URL alone does not make a value verified.

Open in source register

input source
Space Autonomy Monitor: Phase 1 KPI framework and initial figures
Project owner (internal brief) · Supplied input (not evidence)
Published: Supplied on 9 November 2026. Underlying references were not provided with the brief. · Accessed: 9 Nov 2026
9 European orbital launches in 2025; SpaceX 175; China 94.
Reference period: 2025 · Scope: Europe (undefined)
Limitations: No counting rule or source given.
⚑ Conflicting evidence
Not supported by the ESA launch list (7 successful from Kourou) or Ars Technica (8 for Europe).
primary source
A look back at 2025 for Europe's Spaceport
European Space Agency (ESA) · European Space Agency
Published: 13 Mar 2026 · Accessed: 9 Nov 2026
Lists four Ariane 6 and three Vega-C launches from Europe's Spaceport in 2025 (e.g. "1 December: launch of Kompsat-7 satellite"; "17 December: 14th launch of Galileo satellites").
Reference period: 2025 · Scope: Europe's Spaceport (Kourou) only
Limitations: Total is derived by counting listed launches; ESA does not state a Europe-wide total. Excludes launches from other sites.
⚑ Partially verifiedChecked 9 Nov 2026
Individual launches located in retrieved text. Count of 7 derived.
secondary source
Rocket Report: A new super-heavy launch site in California; 2025 year in review
Ars Technica · News media
Published: 9 Jan 2026 · Accessed: 9 Nov 2026
"Europe with eight"; "SpaceX launched 165 Falcon 9 rockets in 2025"; "In addition to five Starship-Super Heavy launches"; "China, which attempted 92 orbital launches in 2025".
Reference period: 2025 · Scope: Europe; SpaceX; China
Limitations: Counting rule (attempts vs successes; provider vs site) not stated.
✓ Verified secondary sourceChecked 9 Nov 2026
Statements located in retrieved text. Contradicts supplied SpaceX (175) and China (94) figures.

Related strategic risks

Suggested relationships, not validated causal links.

R1 Ambition versus capacity
Launch capacity below the hypothesis is a warning indicator of ambition exceeding capacity.
⚑ Suggested link — not validated

Related capabilities

Suggested relationships, not validated causal links.

C01 Critical launch capabilities
Launch count measures access to space.
⚑ Suggested link — not validated
C02 Non-critical launch capabilities
Launch count includes non-critical missions.
⚑ Suggested link — not validated

Related news

Reserved for linking in a later phase.

No news linked yet

The news module is not yet implemented.