Risk matrix
Likelihood × impact. Select a risk to see the underlying assessment.
- 6
- risks
- 4
- critical
- 2
- high
- 0
- low
| Likelihood ↓ · Impact → | 1 · Insignificant | 2 · Minor | 3 · Moderate | 4 · Major | 5 · Critical |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 · Very likely | 5 | 10 | 15 | 20R4 Deterrence versus arms race | 25 |
| 4 · Likely | 4 | 8 | 12 | 16R5 US dependencyR6 European elections and political continuity | 20R1 Ambition versus capacityR2 Sovereignty versus innovationR3 Centralisation versus flexibility |
| 3 · Possible | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 15 |
| 2 · Unlikely | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| 1 · Very unlikely | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
- Low (1–4)
- Moderate (5–9)
- High (10–16)
- Critical (20–25)
Risk register (6)
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Score · severity | Confidence | Last review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R1 · Strategic dilemma Ambition versus capacityEuropean strategic ambitions may exceed available industrial capacity, financing, infrastructure and technological readiness. ⚑ Initial group assessment | 4 · Likely | 5 · Critical | Critical20 | Low | 9 Nov 2026 |
R2 · Strategic dilemma Sovereignty versus innovationA strong focus on European sovereignty could reduce access to global innovation, competitive suppliers and commercial technologies. ⚑ Initial group assessment | 4 · Likely | 5 · Critical | Critical20 | Low | 9 Nov 2026 |
R3 · Strategic dilemma Centralisation versus flexibilityHighly centralised European programmes may create inefficiencies, slow decision-making and reduce flexibility compared with commercial actors. ⚑ Initial group assessment | 4 · Likely | 5 · Critical | Critical20 | Low | 9 Nov 2026 |
R4 · Security Deterrence versus arms raceGrowing military dependence on space capabilities may increase tensions, escalation risks and vulnerability to hostile actions. ⚑ Initial group assessment | 5 · Very likely | 4 · Major | Critical20 | Low | 9 Nov 2026 |
R5 · Societal and political US dependencyChanges in US political priorities, export controls or commercial policies could affect European access to critical space capabilities. ⚑ Initial group assessment | 4 · Likely | 4 · Major | High16 | Low | 9 Nov 2026 |
R6 · Societal and political European elections and political continuityChanges in European political leadership, budgets and priorities could weaken the long-term continuity of space programmes. ⚑ Initial group assessment | 4 · Likely | 4 · Major | High16 | Low | 9 Nov 2026 |