KPI 03 · Autonomy indicator

European share of capital raised in European space funding rounds

Strategic objective: European control over the financing of strategic space companies.

At riskData: VerifiedConfidence: Medium✓ Verified primary evidence

Latest value

69%

Reporting period: 2024–2025 (two-year period)

Source: ESPI Report 102: Space Venture 2025 (full report)

Baseline

69%

Baseline period: 2024–2025 (two-year period)

Target

90% of capital value

Target year: 2036 · Target hypothesis (no target year supplied)

on paceTarget 90% · 203669%

090%

Status and how it was assigned

Assessment, distinct from the sourced values. Status methodology

At riskMethod: Expert assessmentDirection: higher is better

Provisional assessment. 69% is 21 percentage points below the 90% target. Five of the nine 2025 scaleup rounds tracked by ESPI were led by European public entities; all four privately anchored rounds were led by American investors. Only one two-year value is recorded, so no trend can yet be assessed.

Expert assessment applied

Assessed status: At risk
Assessment date: 9 Nov 2026
Reviewer: Monitor editorial review (provisional; individual reviewer not yet assigned)
Reason: Provisional assessment. 69% is 21 percentage points below the 90% target. Five of the nine 2025 scaleup rounds tracked by ESPI were led by European public entities; all four privately anchored rounds were led by American investors. Only one two-year value is recorded, so no trend can yet be assessed.
Supporting evidence: ESPI Space Venture 2025: 69% European-led share of capital (2024–2025); 2025 privately anchored scaleup rounds all US-led.
Confidence: Medium

Quality indicators

Data quality

✓ Verified

Status of the measurement itself.

Confidence

✓ Medium

Independent of the progress status.

Data freshness

✓ Current

Latest period ends 31 Dec 2025; outdated after 24 months.

Source availability

✓ 2 of 3 verified

Source–value links fully verified.

Limitations

⚑ 3 open questions

See limitations and outstanding questions.

Definition

Measured per ESPI: share of the venture capital value raised by European space ventures that was secured in rounds led by European investors. This is a lead-investor measure based on capital value, not the share of capital contributed by European investors and not a count of rounds.

European company: Space venture headquartered in Europe as classified by ESPI.
European investor: Lead investor headquartered in Europe, including public entities. ESPI distinguishes public and private leads.
Lead investors vs all investors: This KPI uses lead investors only.
Capital value vs number of rounds: This KPI uses capital value.

Historical development

Insufficient historical data

Fewer than two sourced observations exist for a single, consistently defined series. A chart will appear once further reporting periods are recorded. No values are interpolated.

Observation log

All recorded values, including supplied, comparison and contextual figures. History is append-only; values are never overwritten.

Period	Value	Series · type	Source · status
2024–2025	69% European space ventures	Europe Baseline	ESPI Report 102: Space Venture 2025 (full report) ✓ Verified primary source "Only 69% of the ~€2 billion venture capital raised in the past two years in Europe was secured in rounds led by European investors." Lead-investor basis. Confidence medium · added 9 Nov 2026
2024–2025	Above 90% (93% in ESPI Figure 3) US space ventures, US-led rounds	United States (comparison) Comparison	ESPI Report 102: Space Venture 2025 (full report) ✓ Verified primary source Same source and method as the European figure, so directly comparable. Confidence medium · added 9 Nov 2026
2025	0 of 4 privately anchored scaleup rounds European space ventures, scaleup rounds	European-led privately anchored scaleup rounds Context	ESPI Report 102: Space Venture 2025 (full report) ✓ Verified primary source Of 9 European scaleup rounds in 2025, five were led by European public entities; all four privately anchored deals were led by American investors. Confidence medium · added 9 Nov 2026

Period

Value

Series · type

Source · status

2024–2025

69%

European space ventures

Europe

Baseline

ESPI Report 102: Space Venture 2025 (full report)

✓ Verified primary source

"Only 69% of the ~€2 billion venture capital raised in the past two years in Europe was secured in rounds led by European investors." Lead-investor basis.

Confidence medium · added 9 Nov 2026

2024–2025

Above 90% (93% in ESPI Figure 3)

US space ventures, US-led rounds

United States (comparison)

Comparison

ESPI Report 102: Space Venture 2025 (full report)

✓ Verified primary source

Same source and method as the European figure, so directly comparable.

Confidence medium · added 9 Nov 2026

2025

0 of 4 privately anchored scaleup rounds

European space ventures, scaleup rounds

European-led privately anchored scaleup rounds

Context

ESPI Report 102: Space Venture 2025 (full report)

✓ Verified primary source

Of 9 European scaleup rounds in 2025, five were led by European public entities; all four privately anchored deals were led by American investors.

Confidence medium · added 9 Nov 2026

Method

Unit: % of capital value
Calculation: Value of rounds led by European investors ÷ total value of venture capital rounds raised by European space ventures over the reference period × 100 (ESPI method).
Numerator: Capital raised in rounds led by European investors
Denominator: Total venture capital raised by European space ventures
Geographic scope: European space ventures (ESPI coverage); investor origin by lead investor
Update frequency: Annual (ESPI Space Venture report)
Data status: Verified
Confidence: Medium
Record last updated: 9 Nov 2026
Record created: 9 Nov 2026

Validation review

Definition: Partially
Baseline verified: Partially
Target justified: No
Method documented: Partially
Source quality: Medium
Reviewed: 9 Nov 2026 · Monitor editorial review (provisional)
Notes: Source measures lead-investor share, not share of capital contributed. No target year supplied.

Limitations and caveats

The figure is lead-investor based: it attributes the full value of a round to the nationality of its lead investor and does not measure how much capital European investors actually contributed. The supplied statement that no 2025 growth round was led by a European private investor is supported only for the nine scaleup rounds tracked by ESPI; it is consistent with the 69% figure because public entities led most European-led rounds. No target year was supplied.

Outstanding questions

Confirm whether the KPI should measure lead-investor share (as ESPI does) or the share of capital actually contributed by European investors.
Set a target year for the 90% target.
Decide whether public-entity leads should count towards the European share.

Sources and evidence

What each source supports for this KPI. A URL alone does not make a value verified.

Open in source register

input source
Space Autonomy Monitor: Phase 1 KPI framework and initial figures
Project owner (internal brief) · Supplied input (not evidence)
Published: Supplied on 9 November 2026. Underlying references were not provided with the brief. · Accessed: 9 Nov 2026
69% European share 2024–2025; US 90%+; no 2025 growth round led by a European private investor.
Reference period: 2024–2025 · Scope: Europe; US
Limitations: Definition not stated.
⚑ Partially verified
Consistent with ESPI once the lead-investor definition is applied.
primary source
ESPI Report 102 – Space Venture 2025 – Full Report
European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) · Research institution
Published: April 2026 (day not stated). · Accessed: 9 Nov 2026
"Only 69% of the ~€2 billion venture capital raised in the past two years in Europe was secured in rounds led by European investors. Meanwhile, in the US, that figure rises to above 90%."
Reference period: 2024–2025 · Scope: European and US space ventures
Limitations: Lead-investor basis: full round value attributed to lead investor origin. ESPI tracked dataset.
✓ Verified primary sourceChecked 9 Nov 2026
Statement located in retrieved text; supports the KPI as defined on a lead-investor basis.
primary source
ESPI Report 102 – Space Venture 2025 – Full Report
European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) · Research institution
Published: April 2026 (day not stated). · Accessed: 9 Nov 2026
"Of the 9 European space venture scaleup rounds in 2025, five were led by European public entities"; "all four remaining deals anchored by private investors were led by American investors."
Reference period: 2025 · Scope: European space ventures, scaleup rounds
Limitations: Applies to ESPI-tracked scaleup rounds only; "growth round" in the brief may be defined differently.
✓ Verified primary sourceChecked 9 Nov 2026
Resolves the supplied possible inconsistency: public entities led most European-led rounds.

Related strategic risks

Suggested relationships, not validated causal links.

R5 US dependency
Reliance on US-led capital is a form of US dependency.
⚑ Suggested link — not validated

Related capabilities

Suggested relationships, not validated causal links.

No capabilities linked

No relationship recorded.

Related news

Reserved for linking in a later phase.

No news linked yet

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