Capability C01
Critical launch capabilities
Launches of institutional, security and defence payloads where assured access matters.
⚑ Draft assessment — requires reviewConfidence: Medium
Recommended approach
Build
Last reviewed 9 Nov 2026
Rationale (analytical judgement)
Strategically critical, alternatives insufficient and not achievable within 24 months: strengthen European capacity.
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Three main questions
- How critical?
- High — Without assured access, Europe cannot place or replace critical satellites on its own schedule.
- Pressure risk
- High — could an external provider use the dependency as political or economic pressure?
- Alternative in 24 months?
- No
Current position
- European capability
- Ariane 6 (Arianespace) and Vega-C (Avio) are operated under ESA exploitation arrangements; Isar Aerospace reached orbit in September 2026. Annual European launch numbers in 2025 were well below the 20-launch hypothesis (see KPI 01).
- External dependencies
- Limited by low launch cadence and few operational providers; any reliance on non-European launchers for critical payloads would create direct exposure.
- Main external actors
- US commercial launch providers (dependency scale not yet sourced)
Additional factors
Factors without a recorded assessment are shown as not yet assessed.
- Cost of developing European capacity
- Not yet assessed
- Time to operational readiness
- New European launchers take years to reach operational readiness; a credible additional provider within 24 months is not evidenced.
- Availability of trusted partners
- Not yet assessed
- Market concentration
- Global commercial launch is concentrated; see the KPI 01 comparisons (sourcing and definitions pending).
- Technological maturity
- Not yet assessed
- Impact on innovation and competitiveness
- Not yet assessed
- Security and resilience
- Critical payloads require assured, sovereign access.
Recommendation history
Manual adjustments with their documented explanation.
No adjustments yet
The draft recommendation has not been changed.
Relevant KPIs
- KPI 01 European orbital launches per year
Launch count measures access to space.
⚑ Suggested link — not validated
- KPI 02 Operational European launch providers
Provider count measures launch diversification.
⚑ Suggested link — not validated
Related risks
- R1 Ambition versus capacity
Assured launch depends on industrial capacity.
⚑ Suggested link — not validated