European Space Autonomy Tracker

1. Per-KPI attainment (0–100). Higher is better: latest ÷ target. Lower is better (KPI 05): target ÷ latest. Clamped to 0–100%.
2. Conflicting evidence no longer excludes a KPI: the most conservative documented value of the latest reporting period (the one giving lower attainment) is used, and the full range is shown.
3. Eligibility. Excluded: threat indicators without a target, KPIs without a baseline or latest value, estimates, values pending verification, outdated values, KPIs without target or target year. Excluded KPIs are listed and never counted as zero.
4. Equal weighting. The meter is 100 × the unweighted mean of eligible KPIs. No defensible evidence exists for relative weights. Each KPI sits in one pillar only. Pillar dials use the same formula within each pillar.
5. Publication rule. The meter is shown only when at least 5 of 12 KPIs are eligible.
6. Confidence is the median confidence of contributing KPIs, capped at Medium when any rests on partially verified or conflicting evidence. Reported separately from the score.
7. Secondary measure. Progress since baseline (method v1.0) is kept on KPI pages and below, but not used for the meter, because most latest values still equal their baselines.
8. Targets are group hypotheses for 2036, not adopted policy targets.

• 12 Nov 2026 · v1.1 · KPI 01Reported range 7–9; midpoint 8 used. Project group brief: a single value is shown on rows, tiles, meter and path calculations; the full reported range remains visible in the KPI drawer and on the Method page. — Project group (KPI page brief)
• 10 Nov 2026 · v1.1 · KPI 11KPI 11 added with case figures; shown in the homepage mosaic with its attainment but excluded from the meter until a Tier 1 or Tier 2 source supports the value. Case figures are not independent evidence; adding them must not move the meter. — Project group (Phase 10 brief)
• 10 Nov 2026 · v1.1 · KPI 12KPI 12 added with case figures (share derived from about €230m of about €10.9bn); shown in the mosaic but excluded from the meter until a Tier 1 or Tier 2 source supports the value. Case figures are not independent evidence; adding them must not move the meter. — Project group (Phase 10 brief)
• 10 Nov 2026 · v1.1KPIs 09 and 10 move from the homepage mosaic to a Development pipeline on the KPI page; their records and exclusion from the meter are unchanged. The homepage shows only indicators with values; unmeasured indicators keep a documented path to a baseline. — Project group (Phase 10 brief)
• 9 Nov 2026 · v1.1 · KPI 10Target year set to 2036. The group defined all targets for 2036. KPI 10 nevertheless stays excluded because its value is an estimate. — Project group (Phase 6 revised brief)
• 9 Nov 2026 · v1.1 · KPI 09Target applies to relevant equipment procured after 2030; no target year assigned to the share. KPI 09 has no baseline or latest value and is shown as monitored, not scored. — Project group (Phase 6 revised brief)
• 9 Nov 2026 · v1.1Meter measures attainment of the 2036 target level: higher is better = clamp(latest/target,0,1); lower is better = clamp(target/latest,0,1); equal-weighted mean ×100. Most latest values still equal their baselines, so progress-since-baseline (v1.0) cannot yet discriminate. Progress since baseline is kept as a secondary measure on KPI pages. — Project group (Phase 6 revised brief)
• 9 Nov 2026 · v1.1Estimates stay excluded until a verifiable source supports them; threat indicators without a target and KPIs without baseline or latest value are monitored, not scored. Prevents unverified or non-directional values entering the meter. — Project group (Phase 6 revised brief)
• 9 Nov 2026 · v1.1Conflicting evidence no longer excludes a KPI: the most conservative documented value of the latest period (lowest attainment) is used, the full reported range is shown, and confidence stays Medium or Low. Excluding disputed KPIs hid information; the conservative value avoids overstating progress. — Project group (Phase 6 revised brief)
• 9 Nov 2026 · v1.1Meter is published only when at least 5 of 10 KPIs are eligible. Minimum evidence coverage before any composite figure is shown. — Project group (Phase 6 revised brief)
• 9 Nov 2026 · v1.1 · KPI 03Target year set to 2036. The group defined all targets for 2036. Documented group decision, not new data. — Project group (Phase 6 revised brief)
• 9 Nov 2026 · v1.1 · KPI 06Target year set to 2036. The group defined all targets for 2036. Documented group decision, not new data. — Project group (Phase 6 revised brief)

Meter

48% of 2036 target level

Evidence coverage

58.3%

Confidence

Medium

Mean of eligible KPIs

48 (shown for transparency only)

• Confidence is the median confidence of the contributing KPIs.
• Some contributing KPIs rest on partially verified or conflicting evidence, so confidence is capped at Medium.
• Low-confidence contributors: KPI 01.

Can Europe reach orbit on its own?

KPI 01, KPI 0253.4% · 2 of 2 scorable

Who finances and controls European space?

KPI 03, KPI 04, KPI 05, KPI 06, KPI 10, KPI 11, KPI 1257.4% · 4 of 7 scorable

Is Europe's space infrastructure secure and resilient?

KPI 07, KPI 08, KPI 090% · 1 of 2 scorable

Reviewers can record a new snapshot after signing in.

• KPI 01 European orbital launches per year⚑ Conflicting evidence⚑ Conflicting evidence — methodological clarification required

  Displayed: 7–9 (conflicting evidence) · Calendar year 2025 · Scope: Europe (European launch providers; launch sites in and outside Europe)

  • input · Supplied input — not evidencePhase 1 KPI framework (supplied research)Project owner (internal brief) · publication date not recorded“9 European orbital launches in 2025; SpaceX 175; China 94.”Period: 2025 · Limitations: No counting rule or source given.⚑ Conflicting evidence
  • primary · Tier 1 · Official primaryESA: Europe's Spaceport 2025 reviewEuropean Space Agency (ESA) · published 13 Mar 2026“Lists four Ariane 6 and three Vega-C launches from Europe's Spaceport in 2025 (e.g. "1 December: launch of Kompsat-7 satellite"; "17 December: 14th launch of Galileo satellites").”Period: 2025 · Limitations: Total is derived by counting listed launches; ESA does not state a Europe-wide total. Excludes launches from other sites.⚑ Partially verified
  • secondary · Tier 4 · General mediaArs Technica Rocket Report: 2025 year in reviewArs Technica · published 9 Jan 2026“"Europe with eight"; "SpaceX launched 165 Falcon 9 rockets in 2025"; "In addition to five Starship-Super Heavy launches"; "China, which attempted 92 orbital launches in 2025".”Period: 2025 · Limitations: Counting rule (attempts vs successes; provider vs site) not stated.✓ Verified secondary source
• KPI 02 Operational European launch providers⚑ Partially verified✓ Supported by Tier 1 official evidence

  Displayed: 2 operational (Arianespace, Avio) + 1 orbit-proven (Isar Aerospace) · Status documented up to 9 September 2026 · Scope: Europe (providers headquartered and controlled in Europe, EU and non-EU)

  • input · Supplied input — not evidencePhase 1 KPI framework (supplied research)Project owner (internal brief) · publication date not recorded“Arianespace and Isar Aerospace listed as European providers (2025).”Period: 2025 · Limitations: No definition of "operational" given.⚑ Conflicting evidence
  • primary · Tier 1 · Official primaryIsar Aerospace press release: Spectrum first test flightIsar Aerospace · published 30 Mar 2025“First Spectrum flight "was terminated at T+30 seconds and fell directly into the sea in controlled manner."”Period: 30 March 2025 · Limitations: Company disclosure about its own flight.✓ Verified primary source
  • primary · Tier 1 · Official primaryESA: Vega-C programme pageEuropean Space Agency (ESA) · publication date not recorded“"Arianespace was responsible for commercial exploitation of the launch system until 2026 when Avio started to take over."”Period: Until 2026 · Limitations: Undated page.✓ Verified primary source
  • primary · Tier 1 · Official primaryESA: Ariane 6 and Vega-C exploitation arrangementsEuropean Space Agency (ESA) · published 14 Nov 2025“Arrangements signed "one with Arianespace and ArianeGroup for Ariane 6, and one with Avio for Vega-C"; Avio assumes "additional responsibilities for selling and operating the Vega launch service."”Period: From 14 November 2025 · Limitations: Classification of Avio as an independent provider depends on ownership/control definition.✓ Verified primary source
  • primary · Tier 1 · Official primaryESA: Spectrum lifts offEuropean Space Agency (ESA) · published 9 Sept 2026“"German company Isar Aerospace successfully reached orbit with their Spectrum launcher, lifting off from Andøya Spaceport in Norway on 5 September 2026."”Period: 5 September 2026 · Limitations: Establishes orbital success, not operational readiness.✓ Verified primary source
• KPI 03 European share of capital raised in European space funding rounds✓ Verified primary evidence✓ Supported by Tier 2 research evidence (no official source located)

  Displayed: 69% · 2024–2025 (two-year period) · Scope: European space ventures (ESPI coverage); investor origin by lead investor

  • primary · Tier 2 · Research institutionESPI Report 102: Space Venture 2025 (full report)European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) · publication date not recorded“"Only 69% of the ~€2 billion venture capital raised in the past two years in Europe was secured in rounds led by European investors. Meanwhile, in the US, that figure rises to above 90%."”Period: 2024–2025 · Limitations: Lead-investor basis: full round value attributed to lead investor origin. ESPI tracked dataset.✓ Verified primary source
  • primary · Tier 2 · Research institutionESPI Report 102: Space Venture 2025 (full report)European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) · publication date not recorded“"Of the 9 European space venture scaleup rounds in 2025, five were led by European public entities"; "all four remaining deals anchored by private investors were led by American investors."”Period: 2025 · Limitations: Applies to ESPI-tracked scaleup rounds only; "growth round" in the brief may be defined differently.✓ Verified primary source
  • input · Supplied input — not evidencePhase 1 KPI framework (supplied research)Project owner (internal brief) · publication date not recorded“69% European share 2024–2025; US 90%+; no 2025 growth round led by a European private investor.”Period: 2024–2025 · Limitations: Definition not stated.⚑ Partially verified
• KPI 04 Private capital raised by European space companies per year⚑ Partially verified✓ Supported by Tier 2 research evidence (no official source located)

  Displayed: €1.4bn · 2025 · Scope: European space ventures (ESPI coverage)

  • primary · Tier 2 · Research institutionESPI: Space Venture Europe 2023European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) · published 22 May 2024“"The space sector raised €942 million, representing a 7% decrease in investment in 2023."”Period: 2023 (with comparison to 2022) · Limitations: ESPI totals include public and mixed investor participation; not exclusively private capital. 2022 value implied, not stated.⚑ Partially verified
  • primary · Tier 2 · Research institutionESPI: Space Venture Europe 2023European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) · published 22 May 2024“2022 value of about €1.0bn implied by the reported 7% decrease to €942m in 2023.”Period: 2022 · Limitations: Derived; exact 2022 figure not located.⚑ Partially verified
  • primary · Tier 2 · Research institutionESPI: Space Venture 2024European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) · published 20 Jun 2025“"Attracting €1.5 billion"; "over 80% of the capital secured in Europe came from public or mixed investor consortia."”Period: 2024 · Limitations: Not exclusively private capital.⚑ Partially verified
  • primary · Tier 2 · Research institutionESPI: Space Venture 2025 report pageEuropean Space Policy Institute (ESPI) · published 5 May 2026“"Europe's space ventures attracted €1.4 billion in 2025"; "Venture capital…grew by 13% to €1.2 billion."”Period: 2025 · Limitations: Not exclusively private capital.⚑ Partially verified
  • contextual · Tier 3 · Specialist industry / financialJumpseat Aerospace News: European space-tech funding H1 2026Jumpseat Aerospace News · published 12 Aug 2026“"European space-tech companies raised €2.9 billion"; "Debt financing accounted for 45.6% of the total."”Period: H1 2026 · Limitations: Secondary report of Tech.eu data; includes debt; half-year; different coverage from ESPI.⚑ Partially verified
  • input · Supplied input — not evidencePhase 1 KPI framework (supplied research)Project owner (internal brief) · publication date not recorded“ESPI figures 2022 €1.0bn, 2023 €0.94bn, 2024 €1.5bn, 2025 €1.4bn; Tech.eu H1 2026 €2.9bn incl. debt.”Period: 2022–2026 · Limitations: Supplied summary.⚑ Partially verified
• KPI 05 Foreign buyers in acquisitions of European space companies⚑ Partially verified✓ Supported by Tier 2 research evidence (no official source located)

  Displayed: 35% · 2014–2025 (cumulative) · Scope: Target companies: Europe (EU and non-EU). Buyer origin: headquarters outside Europe.

  • primary · Tier 2 · Research institutionESPI Report 102: Space Venture 2025 (full report)European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) · publication date not recorded“"Of the 46 tracked acquisitions of European space companies over the 2014-2025 period, around a third (35%) involved foreign acquirers, predominantly US-based."”Period: 2014–2025 · Limitations: "Foreign" may not equal "non-European"; completion and control-transfer status not confirmed; cumulative only.⚑ Partially verified
  • input · Supplied input — not evidencePhase 1 KPI framework (supplied research)Project owner (internal brief) · publication date not recorded“Approximately one-third of acquisitions since 2014 by foreign buyers.”Period: Since 2014 · Limitations: Supplied summary.⚑ Partially verified
• KPI 06 SMEs' share of European Defence Fund funding✓ Verified primary evidence✓ Supported by Tier 1 official evidence

  Displayed: >21% · EDF 2025 calls (results April 2026) · Scope: EU (European Defence Fund; EU Member States and associated countries)

  • primary · Tier 1 · Official primaryEuropean Commission: EDF 2025 call resultsEuropean Commission (DG DEFIS) · published 15 Apr 2026“"SMEs are central to this round, making up over 38% of participants and receiving more than 21% of the total funding."”Period: EDF 2025 calls · Limitations: Whole EDF; not space-specific. Lower bounds.✓ Verified primary source
  • primary · Tier 1 · Official primaryEuropean Commission: EDF 2023 call results factsheetEuropean Commission (DG DEFIS) · publication date not recorded“"Strong SME involvement: 42% of all entities selected with 18% of total funding to SMEs."”Period: EDF 2023 calls · Limitations: Whole EDF; not space-specific. Participation basis ("entities selected") may differ from 2025 ("participants").✓ Verified primary source
• KPI 07 IRIS² satellites deployed⚑ Partially verified✓ Supported by Tier 1 official evidence

  Displayed: 0 of at least 348 (inferred) · As described by ESA, 30 October 2026 · Scope: EU (IRIS² is an EU programme; ESA is a partner, not an EU institution)

  • primary · Tier 1 · Official primaryESA: IRIS² programme pageEuropean Space Agency (ESA) · published 30 Oct 2026“"Multi-orbital constellation of at least 348 satellites"; "at least 330 satellites located in low Earth orbit (LEO) and 18 in medium Earth orbit (MEO)"; "With launches starting in 2029 and early services starting to be provided in 2030".”Period: Programme description, 30 October 2026 · Limitations: Zero deployed is inferred from the launch schedule, not stated.✓ Verified primary source
  • primary · Tier 1 · Official primaryESA: IRIS² programme pageEuropean Space Agency (ESA) · published 30 Oct 2026“Launches starting in 2029 (implies no IRIS² satellites deployed as of October 2026).”Period: As of 30 October 2026 · Limitations: Inference.⚑ Partially verified
  • secondary · Tier 1 · Official primaryEuropean Commission: IRIS² concession signatureEuropean Commission (DG DEFIS) · published 16 Dec 2024“"A multi-orbital constellation of 290 satellite[s]"; "governmental and commercial connectivity services by 2030."”Period: 16 December 2024 · Limitations: Earlier design description.⚑ Conflicting evidence
• KPI 08 European air traffic exposed to GNSS interference⚑ Outdated evidence✓ Supported by Tier 1 official evidence

  Displayed: 38% · 2021 (latest documented) · Scope: European airspace (EUROCONTROL network area, wider than the EU)

  • primary · Tier 1 · Official primaryEUROCONTROL: GNSS webinar introductionEUROCONTROL · publication date not recorded“"38.5% of European en-route traffic operates through regions intermittently, but regularly affected by RFI"; "5% of traffic in these regions could, given current RFI levels, need special assistance."”Period: H2 2020 · Limitations: Exposure, not disruption. Based on Airbus detection data. Presentation material. Outdated.✓ Verified primary source
  • primary · Tier 1 · Official primaryEUROCONTROL: Monitoring GNSS RF InterferenceEUROCONTROL · publication date not recorded“"Can affect around 38% of European Network Traffic."”Period: 1 January–31 December 2021 · Limitations: Exposure, not disruption. Approximate. Presentation material. Outdated.✓ Verified primary source
  • input · Supplied input — not evidencePhase 1 KPI framework (supplied research)Project owner (internal brief) · publication date not recorded“38% of European air traffic exposed; up to 40% also referenced.”Period: Not stated · Limitations: Supplied summary.⚑ Source verification pending
• KPI 09 New critical-infrastructure navigation equipment supporting authenticated GNSS⚑ Source verification pending⚑ Insufficient verified evidence

  Displayed: Not yet measured · no reporting period · Scope: EU Member States (critical entities)

  • contextual · Tier 1 · Official primaryEUSPA press release: OSNMA service launchEU Agency for the Space Programme (EUSPA) · published 22 Jul 2025“"Forthcoming official launch…on 24 July"; "While OSNMA does not prevent spoofing or jamming, it makes spoofing significantly harder by authenticating the data".”Period: Service launch 24 July 2025 · Limitations: Context for the KPI; does not measure equipment uptake.✓ Verified primary source
  • contextual · Tier 1 · Official primaryEUSPA news: OSNMA protection against interferenceEU Agency for the Space Programme (EUSPA) · published 22 Jul 2025“"While the OSNMA does increase the ability to detect spoofing events, it does not prevent their occurrence. Nor does it protect against jamming."”Period: 2025 · Limitations: Context only.✓ Verified primary source
• KPI 10 Business users' share of active Copernicus data users⚑ Source verification pending✓ Supported by Tier 1 official evidence

  Displayed: 7% (unverified) · Period not stated · Scope: EU programme (global user base)

  • input · Supplied input — not evidencePhase 1 KPI framework (supplied research)Project owner (internal brief) · publication date not recorded“Companies 7%, researchers 64% of Copernicus users; 289,000 registered users in 2024.”Period: Not stated (2024 for users) · Limitations: Denominator and period not stated.⚑ Source verification pending
  • primary · Tier 1 · Official primaryCopernicus Data Space Ecosystem: Annual Report 2024 releaseCopernicus Data Space Ecosystem · published 4 Dec 2025“"289,000 users registered in 2024."”Period: 2024 · Limitations: Registered users of one platform, not active users; not a business share.✓ Verified primary source
  • secondary · Tier 1 · Official primaryCopernicus Data Space Ecosystem: Annual Report 2024Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (operating consortium) · publication date not recorded“"Registered users soared from 84,000 to almost 290,000."”Period: 2024 · Limitations: Registered stock; not active users.✓ Verified primary source
  • contextual · Tier 1 · Official primaryEUSPA: EU Space and an autonomous UnionEU Agency for the Space Programme (EUSPA) · published 23 Jan 2026“"GNSS and Earth Observation combined global revenues set to increase from more than EUR 260 billion in 2023 to nearly EUR 590 billion by 2033."”Period: 2023–2033 (projection) · Limitations: Projection; not Copernicus-only, not Europe-only, not a range. Not a KPI value.✓ Verified primary source
• KPI 11 Public space spending as a share of GDP⚑ Source verification pending⚑ Insufficient verified evidence

  Displayed: 0.07% of GDP (case figure) · 2025 (reporting year to be confirmed) · Scope: Europe (EU, ESA and national budgets)

  • ⚑ No source recorded.
• KPI 12 Share of European public space money under direct EU control⚑ Source verification pending⚑ Insufficient verified evidence

  Displayed: about 2% (€230m of €10.9bn, case figures) · 2025 (reporting year to be confirmed) · Scope: Europe (EU, ESA and national budgets)

  • ⚑ No source recorded.