R4 · Security
Deterrence versus arms race
Growing military dependence on space capabilities may increase tensions, escalation risks and vulnerability to hostile actions.
Likelihood
5 / 5
Very likely
Impact
4 / 5
Major
Score
20
Likelihood × impact
Severity
Critical band
Basis: Initial group assessment supplied in the Phase 3 brief. Evidence: Group judgement; not an independent measurement. · Project group (initial group assessment), 9 Nov 2026.
Observed developments
Sourced facts already recorded in the monitor.
EUROCONTROL reported GNSS radio-frequency interference affecting European aviation (2021–2022 material).
Potential future scenario
Scenario, not an observed fact.
Interference and hostile actions against space systems increase in frequency and severity.
Analytical assessment
Judgement, distinct from observations.
Initial group assessment: very likely and major. GNSS interference data are outdated (KPI 08).
Strategic consequences: Space systems become targets; disruption of navigation and communications affects civil society and defence.
Warning indicators
- Anti-satellite weapon developments
- Increasing military activity in orbit
- Satellite interference
- Cyberattacks against space infrastructure
- Escalating geopolitical tensions
Assessment history
Every change is recorded with previous and new score. News never changes a score automatically.
- 9 Nov 2026InitialL5 × I4
Initial group assessment supplied in the Phase 3 brief.
Evidence: Group judgement; not an independent measurement.
Reviewer: Project group (initial group assessment)
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Related KPIs
- KPI 08 European air traffic exposed to GNSS interference
GNSS interference is a warning indicator of hostile activity.
⚑ Suggested link — not validated
- KPI 09 New critical-infrastructure navigation equipment supporting authenticated GNSS
Authenticated GNSS uptake mitigates spoofing.
⚑ Suggested link — not validated
Related capabilities
- C05 Galileo and European navigation services
Navigation services are exposed to interference.
⚑ Suggested link — not validated
- C08 Ground stations and communication infrastructure
Ground segments are exposed to hostile actions.
⚑ Suggested link — not validated
- C09 Critical-infrastructure navigation receivers
Receivers determine resilience to spoofing.
⚑ Suggested link — not validated
Related news
Reserved for a later phase.
No news linked yet